Now that Fred Thompson has officially withdrawn his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination; we can take some time to seriously reflect on the impact his candidacy. While much of the focus on Thompson’s withdrawal has been looking forward with speculation, this week’s Friday Look will instead look backwards at the lessons and groundbreaking strategies that the Thompson campaign employed; even if he was not ultimately successful in his quest for the Presidency. 

From the very beginning Thompson asserted that he was going run “a different kind of campaign” and was going to do things his way. And he did. 

His announcement strategy was the best in recent memory and gave a new meaning to earned media. It included a draft movement and groundswell of support unseen since Dwight D. Eisenhower. He had a unique appeal that had not been seen since Ronald Reagan. As he “mulled” a decision to run for President, his poll numbers kept rising. The buzz kept building.

As his campaign geared up, Thompson appeared on national news shows with more regularity than the candidates who were already in the race and looked and sounded Presidential in his public appearances. He appeared on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno twice; and on his second visit to the set, made his official entrance into the race. That announcement happened to coincide with one of the Republican debates, and the campaign aired an ad during that debate’s commercial break with Thompson announcing his candidacy and directing viewers to his website. The campaign effectively soaked up the media coverage of the debate; and his campaign hit the ground running. 

The Thompson campaign ran the best New Media operation making full use of his acting skills and setting what will become standard practice for future campaigns. New Media refers to anything Internet related; and includes blogging and online video.

He filmed a made for New Media clip that criticized Michael Moore for wanting a Cuban-style health care system in the United States, something Moore asserted in his “documentary” Sicko. It included Thompson smoking a Cuban cigar and advising Moore to consider checking into an insane asylum. He also filmed his 15-minute announcement speech posted on his website that spoke directly to voters outlining his background, his personal and political philosophy, and his vision for the country.

Thompson brought, in addition to the pool of reports who tagged along, his own spokesman and camera everywhere he went. His spokesman would provide periodic reports of the day’s events and clips from the campaign trail which were posted on the official campaign blog. It allowed readers and supporters from all across the country to visit the website and get a behind the scenes look at what was happening on the campaign trail. It also allowed them to capture priceless moments such as the snowball fight in Iowa and the event in South Carolina that got so big that the fire marshal had to shut them down.

Unfortunately for the Thompson campaign, they were just ahead of their time. Once Thompson was officially in, he vaulted to the top tier. But as he took to the campaign trail, it appeared that his supporters were more excited about him making the run than he was. Sure he “would have liked” to be President (to quote him from the Tonight Show), but he was not willing to work for it. He raised far less money than everyone thought he could, and his campaign began to stall.

Thompson ended his campaign with a press release and statement. His way. No public appearance, no grandstanding. Just back to the quiet life of being an actor.

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John Xavier is a political blogger and columnist that writes at ElephantBiz.com and the American Chronicle. If you are interested in syndicating this column, purchasing his articles, or hiring him as a ghostwriter contact him by email.

The successes of Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton in their respective primaries raises a question that is the subject of this week's Friday Look: What is it about Arkansas?

Mike Huckabee’s political talent was honed on the pulpit. He began as a small town minister and aspiring televangelist. He tended to several Southern Baptist churches and started two Christian television stations. He developed skills that would translate well to the stump such as speaking in metaphors, tapping into the populist sentiment of his audiences, and comfortable body language.

In 1989, he started his political career when he was elected President of the Arkansas Southern Baptist Convention. Three years later he lost a race for U.S. Senate, but then won election as Lt. Governor in 1994. Two years later, in the midst of the Whitewater scandal and his predecessors’ resignation, he was elevated to Governor of Arkansas. He served in that position for ten years before beginning his current campaign for the Presidency.

The Huckabee spin machine is equally impressive. The press seems to genuinely enjoy Huckabee’s company; and he seems to get a free pass from them sometimes. His appearances on late-night talk shows like Jay Leno and Stephen Colbert revealed not only a witty and personable side of him; but also
humility.

In the meantime, his surrogates like Campaign Manager Chip Saltsman and Campaign Chairman Ed Rollins explain his message and drive their negative message of the day against one of their opponents. It has proven to be an effective one-two punch that has gotten Huckabee this far.

Hillary Clinton’s raw political talent was developed at Wellesley and her time working on Capitol Hill. At Wellesley she served as President of the Young Republicans and then President of the College Government Association. She then interned at the House Republican Caucus in Washington, DC; before working on the presidential primary campaign of Nelson Rockefeller who was running for the Republican nomination.

After Rockefeller lost the nomination, she left the Republican Party for good and returned to Wellesley. Upon graduating, she was chosen to deliver the commencement address in which she criticized Republican U.S. Senator Edward Brooke of Massachusetts who had spoken right before her.
The current Clinton spin machine was first developed during the years of the Clinton presidency.

After getting elected in 1992, the Clinton spin machine fresh from Little Rock went to work. First they sold his Clinton’s controversial campaign promise of allowing gays and lesbians to serve in the military. The resulting legislation was “Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell.” They next tackled gun control passing the Brady Bill that required a five day waiting period on handgun purchases.  However, while Clinton proved adroit at achieving political compromise; the policies proved to be politically disastrous. The 1994 midterms resulted in the Republican Revolution and the Democrats losing both the House and the Senate.

But Clinton bounced back and began continuous polling of Americans to “listen” to where Americans stood on the issues.  Triangulation was born and Clinton won reelection. As the 1998 midterms approached, the spin machine found itself attempting to weather allegations of lewd conduct in the Oval Office by the President. While they were fairly successful, gaining seat in the 1998 midterms, the whole episode ended in Clinton’s impeachment.

Following impeachment; the spin machine went back to work. The Clinton surrogates took to the national talk shows selling the whole impeachment process as rapid Republican partisanship.

While that was not likely a selling point to the Senators who voted against removing him from office; it went a long way towards salvaging his reputation among the American people.

The second iteration of the Clinton machine utilizes many of these techniques developed during impeachment. On the stump or under examination, Hillary sticks to her guns. She does not speak of sexual relations, but rather the working class and specific policy proposals.

Off the stump, Clinton surrogates take to the national talk shows driving a separate, often negative message. The latest example was the comments by Congressman Bob Johnson about Barack Obama that got the national media talking about race for days.

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John Xavier is a political blogger and columnist that writes at ElephantBiz.com and the American Chronicle. If you are interested in syndicating this column, purchasing his articles, or hiring him as a ghostwriter contact him by email.

Conventional wisdom told us that February 5th, also known as National Primary Day or Tsunami Tuesday, would give us the nominee. We would have three Presidents by February 5th, or more specifically, we’d have one President and two people acting and talking like a President. But luckily for President Bush, as this race has begun to take shape, the likelihood of having a nominee by February 5th is beginning to look less and less likely. This week’s Friday Look will look at the delegate math behind the Republican Presidential nomination.

With three contests down and 47 to go, here is how the delegate count currently stands: Mitt Romney 30, Mike Huckabee 21, (Romney and Huckabee have the support of unpledged delegates), McCain 10, Thompson 6, Ron Paul 2, Rudy Giuliani 1, Duncan Hunter 1. It takes 1,191 delegates to become the nominee and there are 2,257 delegates left up for grabs.

Although momentum has traditionally played a factor in the nominating contests, the diversity of this race with candidates hailing from different areas of the country and counting different parts of the party as their base leaves a question mark by February 5th. Assuming no one drops out, Tsunami Tuesday could leave us in chaos.

Prior to February 5th, 271 delegates will be selected. All of the states have proportional systems of allocation with the exception of Florida whose 57 delegates will be awarded winner-take-all and will, for the purposes of this analysis, remain undetermined.

Applying national poll percentages to the remaining 214 (I agree this is a poor way to proportion them, but it becomes irrelevant in the long run so bear with me) would give roughly 50 to McCain and Huckabee each, 41 to Giuliani, 35 to Romney, 28 to Thompson, and 10 to Ron Paul.

On February 5th there are 1,139 delegates up for grabs. Giulaini is likely to win the winner-take-all contests of Connecticut, Delaware, New York and New Jersey for a total of 201 delegates. Arizona and Utah also have winner-take-all contests, and McCain and Romney can be expected to win their respective 53 and 36 delegates. In Tennessee, if a candidate wins a majority vote then they get all of Tennessee’s 55 delegates; and Thompson can be expected to easily achieve that. In Arkansas, any candidate who reaches 10% receives at least delegates with the rest going winner-take-all per district and winner-take-all for statewide and bonus delegates if the candidate receives a majority vote; thus Huckabee can be expected to win at least 30 of the 34 delegates. That leaves 764 Tsunami delegates left.

The other February 5th contests require a bit of conjecture. Alabama’s delegates are proportioned winner-take-all by Congressional district and then proportionally for its at-large and bonus delegates. Georgia is winner-take-all by Congressional district and then winner-take-all of the entire state for its at-large and bonus delegates. Assuming Huckabee finishes ahead of Thompson in both South Carolina and Florida, we’ll say 75 to Huckabee and 45 to Thompson. That leaves 644 Tsunami delegates left.

Oklahoma and California are winner-take-all by district and winner-take-all for its at large and bonus delegates. The last poll showed Huckabee comfortably ahead in Okalahoma so we’ll say he takes all 41 delegates.

Extrapolating California is a bit more difficult because its districts range from extremely liberal (Nancy Pelosi) to extremely conservative (Duncan Hunter). Breaking down California is a task in itself, but it is safe to assume the delegates will split with the most going to Giuliani, so applying the latest poll (and giving Ron Paul the benefit of the doubt) gives 48 to Giuliani, 34 to Huckabee, 28 to Romney, 23 to McCain, and 22 to Thompson, and 18 to Ron Paul. That leaves 430 Tsunami delegates.

Missouri and North Dakota have statewide winner-take-all contests and so those 84 delegates, like Florida’s 57, will remain undetermined.

The rest of the February 5th states have some form of proportional selection. Applying the national poll strategy to the remaining 346 delegates gives 82 to McCain and Huckabee each, 65 to Giuliani, 55 to Romney, 49 to Thompson, and 13 to Ron Paul.

Taking these assumptions; that would put the delegate account at: Giuliani 356, Huckabee 333, Romney 238, Thompson 205, McCain 218, Paul 43. After February 5th there will be 847 delegates up for grabs. Unless Giuliani or Huckabee sweeps them, then this race is going to the Convention.

With the prospect of a brokered Convention on the horizon, expect some quid pro quo negotiations to take place with leading candidates offering Cabinet positions or even the Vice-Presidency to others in exchange for delegates. The possibilities are endless.

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John Xavier is a political blogger and columnist who writes at ElephantBiz.com and the American Chronicle.